A tactical vote is a decision to vote for a party or candidate that is not your first or ‘ideal’ choice but may prevent a party (or candidate) who you do not wish to gain power from winning an election.

One of the main features of the First Past the Post (FPTP) electoral system is the comparison between ‘safe’ and ‘unsafe’ (or ‘swing’) seats. A ‘safe’ seat is a parliamentary seat almost guaranteed to be won by a particular party/candidate, where there is a significant amount of local support for them. This is measured through polling and other political science methods. 

For example, Norwich South—where UEA sits—has been a ‘safe’ Labour seat since Clive Lewis won it from the Liberal Democrats in 2015 (and before the latter won it in 2010). Polling predicts Lewis will retain this reputation in the 2024 election (see below poll).

YouGov 2024 General Election yougov.co.uk/elections

An ‘unsafe’ or ‘swing’ seat refers to a parliamentary seat with a high or very high chance of being won by one party or the other. Norwich North, for example, has ‘swung’ between Labour and the Conservatives multiple times since the 1970s with relatively narrow margins between them (see below table). It is now predicted as a ‘Safe’ Labour seat ahead of the General Election, with Labour’s candidate, Alice Macdonald, currently polling almost 30 percentage points ahead of the Conservatives (who have held the seat since 2009) (YouGov, June 27 2024).

So, is it a good idea to vote tactically, and if so, how should you go about doing it?

Firstly, check the latest General Election polls to understand the electoral picture in your constituency. YouGov MRP polling is widely regarded as one of the most accurate and reliable sources for doing this; here, you can type your postcode into a constituency-specific search tool to see the latest results in your seat. 

If you’re in a ‘safe’ seat, consider whether you’d be happy for this candidate/party to win and represent you in parliament. If the answer is yes, great – you will most likely vote for the winning candidate. If the answer is no, you might choose to vote for another candidate you agree with more or simply ‘protest’ against the front-runner. Some academics and commentators (and even political candidates) may argue that doing so is a ‘wasted’ vote as the leading candidate ‘will win anyway’. But ultimately, your vote will still be counted as part of the democratic process – whether for another candidate or ‘spoilt’. How you choose this is entirely up to you and your judgment. 

YouGov 2024 General Election yougov.co.uk/elections

If you find yourself voting in an ‘unsafe’ (‘swing’) seat, things can get a little more complicated; in general, the specific electoral conditions of each seat need to be considered.

Let’s briefly look at the much-anticipated (and newly formed) constituency of Waveney Valley in South Norfolk/North Suffolk. 

Here, we can see that while the Conservatives are leading in the polls, it is only by a few percentage points. The ReformUK, Green Party and Labour candidates are predicted to receive similar levels of votes in Waveney Valley, with a very close second/third likely. So, if you don’t want the Conservatives to win here – but simultaneously aren’t that keen on one or more of the others – you might want to consider “Who do I least want to win here, and who might I just be able to put up with to stop my least favourite from winning?”. If, for example, you really don’t want to see the Conservatives or Reform get in, you might be best voting Green (just – they are currently polling 0.4% ahead of the Labour candidate.

Assessing the polls will only get you so far, however. When you’re faced with a seat as close as the above example, it is arguably of equal importance to consider other sources to inform your decision, such as the local media and political ‘pundits’, respective social media accounts and talking to a range of local friends and family to hear their thoughts. 

The thought of voting for someone other than your preferred party or candidate will likely sit uncomfortably with many people – especially if you’re a first-time voter. Ultimately, it is up to us as individuals to figure out where we stand on this. But you can do several relatively easy things to help inform your decision.

Your democratic right to vote and help decide who will represent you, your friends and your family in the House of Commons is an individual privilege and a very personal choice. Try not to let anyone or anything pressure you into voting tactically. But, it may be worth considering and figuring out how to do so best if a party or candidate you dislike is likely to win in your area.