Despite losing the 2020 election, Former President Trump has consistently denied its legitimacy. This behaviour is a pattern dating back to his claims in 2016, an election which he won, about a rigged popular vote. Since there is no proven evidence to substantiate any of these claims, it is fair to say that Trump tends to stretch the truth in his favour.

So, with a Trump victory seemingly no longer a forgone conclusion, how might he handle another defeat? Well, to most it seems clear, that, in the event of a Trump defeat, he and his team will do all they can to dispute and disrupt the process. But people change, and so do their strategies. Will there be a different approach? 

There seem to be two possible outcomes. First, favoured by those horrified by January 6th, is a landslide victory for Harris. In such an event, it will become much more difficult for Trump to dispute the result. Not to say that he won’t try. What is key in such a situation is that many congressional Republicans, who support Trump largely because of the current climate, will see that Trump has fallen out of favour with the people, losing him allies exactly where he will need them.

The alternative, at present the seemingly more likely outcome, is that the race will be as close as the previous one. Such a close result, ending in a Trump defeat, will almost inevitably trigger similar disruption from him. Trump’s former allies have already suggested they might contest unfavourable results, with Trump’s former security advisor, John Bolton, claiming he is laying the groundwork to question the election results if he loses.

It will start as a demand for recounts in key states – Pennsylvania and Georgia. There may also be subsequent attempts at swaying electors, as in 2020. However, given the ongoing legal disputes, this tactic seems unlikely. The key question is, will there be a repeat of January 6th? This seems unlikely.

Other than to some fringe Republicans, those who participated in on January 6th are viewed as insurrectionists, if not, violent rioters. As a result, relevant authorities will be working double shifts to prevent a repeat. MAGA will be aware of this. It seems logical that, rather than focusing on the federal congress, with all its security, these supporters would focus on state capitols of key swing states.

This would occur in the coming December and would take the shape of a more fractured approach. Such an approach is more dangerous to American democracy. These violent pockets of uprising would be more difficult to manage and would potentially trigger similar acts across the country.

This scenario might seem far-fetched to some but think back to the day Trump descended his golden escalator to announce his candidacy, and how quickly it spiralled. Members of the Capitol Police died, lawmakers are forced into hiding, and the great experiment known as the United States of America is attacked.