With the current season of the Premier League approaching halfway, the race for the title, European places, and relegation battle are taking shape. History shows 31 of 33 eventual champions won the league with a points total in the 80s or higher. The closer a team is to 90 points, the more likely their chances. On statistics website Opta, its predicted final table has Arsenal winning the league on 83 xpts (expected points), their chances of the title at 65%. Four weeks ago their chances were 80%, but in December they have stumbled, losing to Aston Villa and struggling to beat bottom side Wolves. However they were top at Christmas, although for two consecutive seasons (2022/23 and 2023/24), they did the same before finishing 2^nd behind Manchester City. 

Speaking of City, they have recovered from last season’s spectacular blip and a rocky start to be 2^nd, 2 points behind Arsenal. Opta’s predicted table has them finishing 2^nd with 78 xpts, and their current chances of winning the title are 27%. Whilst their defence has been weak at times, such as the 4-5 win at Fulham, their attack has been covering the cracks. Erling Haaland seems assured of the golden boot on 19 goals, Brentford’s Igor Thiago 2^nd on 11, a trend of mid-table clubs having in form attackers. The 3^rd highest scorer, Bournemouth’s Antoine Semenyo, is in talks for a January move to City. The club has form of unbeaten runs in the New Year, so they will fight for a 9^th Premier League title until the end. After no wins in the first five, Aston Villa continue a remarkable turnaround to be 3^rd, a point behind City. Under Unai Emery, the club has reached a winning run of 11 games in all competitions, equalling the club record from 1914 and 1897. Time will show if they can maintain their form, but right now they appear to always find a way to win.

After predicted consecutive titles, Liverpool have had a torrid season. Opta’s current predictions have them finishing 4^th with 66 xpts. They have the 2^nd most shots on goal (272), only Manchester United (291) have had more, are 10^th for conversion with 11.03%, one spot above United’s 11%. They have the highest average possession at 61%, are 2^nd in successful passes. Yet October and November featured their worst run of form for 72 years, the result of many issues coming together at the same time. A squad overhauled and overbalanced towards attackers, unnecessary signings such as the £125 million Alexander Isak, conceding an average 1.44 goals per match, vulnerable from set pieces, and key players underperforming. The impact of Diogo Jota’s tragic death on the team has often been understated, but it cannot be used as an excuse. Since late November, they are unbeaten, ending the year with £116 million signing Florian Wirtz scoring his first goal, growing in confidence after a rocky few months. 

After two seasons of promoted teams going straight down, Sunderland have surprised, with 29 points from 18 games to be 7^th, whilst Leeds had a remarkable December run to sit 7 points above the relegation zone. The mid table is congested, only 4 points separating 8^th and 15^th. West Ham are at risk of a third Premier League relegation, whilst Wolves, on 2 points, risk surpassing Derby’s unwanted record of 11 points to become the worst team in Premier League history. 

Statistics compiled after Match Week 18, 26th^th – 28^th December. 

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